What are the best sports to bet on?

What are the best sports to bet on?

jim

Are there some sports that give you a betting edge?

It's tough enough chiselling out an edge over the bookies but have you ever wondered what sports can give you the edge? Doctor of Danger has. Take notes as he beckons you into his surgery of knowledge.Most of us who bet on sports will bet on sports closest to our heart - maybe the one(s) we have followed since childhood. Occasionally we might branch out later in life as our tastes change, or maybe as we follow somebody else's tips.

But is this really the best way to bet?

Most of us who bet on sports will bet on those sports closest to our heart - maybe the one(s) we have followed since childhood.

What factors should we consider when deciding which sports we want to bet on?

Punters' Paradise assembled some of its finest minds and put them to answering this question. Our panel had diverse technical, occupational and personal backgrounds, although most identified UK football as their current main betting focus.

The first thing to do was to look at what factors were important to consider in reaching such a decision. The collective wisdom was that following should be considered:

Integrity - can we trust that matches won't be fixed, or that insider information could affect our chances of winning?

Number of Participating Teams/Players - Is there a manageable number of contestants whose form has to be tracked? We also need to consider the number of games/matches that take place, which will generally increase with the number of contestants

Number of match-ups between participants - are there a large number of games that take place between individual participant pairs? This should help us to draw formlines more clearly, while also increasing the number of games available to bet on.

Market Volume - is this a major sport with lots of money available, or are we going to have difficulty in placing/matching bets?

Availability of Data - can we easily get the information we need to make our bets, or back-test any systems we may have?

Integrity - can we trust that matches won't be fixed, or that insider information could affect our chances of winning?

Time Gap between games - is there sufficient time for participants to recover between matches or is fatigue likely to be a factor? Is there a long time between games so that rustiness may be a factor?

Uniformity of standard - can we generally assume that teams will treat each game equally, or are there other factors that may influence the participants' commitment?

High Scoring - generally we would prefer a high/clear scoring system so that the nominally stronger participant's superiority is well reflected in the scoreline. This should see less variability in results, if we are good at predicting.

The next step was to ask our 7 strong team to individually assign a 'weight' to each of the above metrics

Familiarity with sport - do we know much about the sport, or follow it closely so that we can include qualitative information in our assessment process, or recognise underlying reasons why offered prices might be out of line with our tissue prices?

The next step was to ask our 7 strong team to individually assign a 'weight' to each of the above metrics. We asked them to assign each of the above a number between 1 and 10, with 10 representing highest importance. The results were as follows:

Weighting (out of 10), Category

  • 9.9, Availability of Data
  • 8.6, Integrity
  • 7.6, Uniformity of Standard
  • 7.1, Number of Participating Teams
  • 6.9, Number of match-ups between participants
  • 6.7, High Scoring
  • 6.1, Market Volume
  • 5.4, Familiarity with Sport
  • 2.4, Time Gap

There was a high degree of uniformity across the 7 respondents, with the only significant area of disagreement being 'Familiarity with Sport'.

Two members of the group (one a qualified mathematician, and the other a semi-professional punter felt that this was of little importance (presumably feeling that one could learn as they go!), while the rest felt it of moderate to strong importance (~7/10).

Interestingly enough the consensus was that market volume was not a key issue, although that probably reflects the reasonably modest stakes that this group are likely to be placing!

We now had a series of metrics and an idea of their importance relative to each other. The next stage was to ask the group to consider a shortlist of sports selected for consideration under the metrics defined above.

Again there was a high degree of uniformity in the responses, with the biggest differences emerging in the knowledge/familiarity each individual had with each of the shortlisted sports.

There was also some variation in opinion as to what constituted 'high-scoring'. The results of this process were:

  • NFL 7.78
  • NBA 7.71
  • Soccer, domestic 7.24
  • MLB 7.21
  • NHL 6.62
  • Motor Racing 6.60
  • Golf 6.20
  • Snooker 6.11
  • Men's Tennis 5.71
  • Women's Tennis 5.48
  • Horses 4.63
  • Dogs 3.95

Overall the results were somewhat counterintuitive to the group, but after much discussion and deliberation it was felt that they were an accurate reflection of our opinions on the area.

The group chose, as its top two sports to bet on, American Football, about which only one of our number has a clue, and Basketball about which we were all fairly ignorant!

The American sports did particularly well, in comparison to soccer, on availability of data and being (relatively) high scoring in nature. Bet on Football excelled in terms of the market volumes and the knowledge we had of the sport.

So, a somewhat surprising conclusion to a thought-provoking and interesting exercise; it may give some of you pause for thought before placing your next bet - it certainly did this for us!


Создано с помощью Tgraph.io